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Frequently Asked Questions For
TSPAdvisor.com

1.     How are TSP Advisor Predictions developed? 

TSP Advisor monitors daily TSP share price movements to determine which are technically significant.  Predictions for which TSP fund will have a positive return on investment (ROI) in the future are made and provided to subscribers by TSP Advisor Alert Email. TSP Advisor predictions are developed as output of a proprietary TSP prediction process, and the  percentage of your personal TSP account value proposed to be invested in each prediction is determined by TSP Advisor using the TSP Funding Allocation Strategy.  A brief description of the TSP Prediction Process and TSP Funding Allocation Strategy is as follows: 

a)  TSP Prediction Process: The TSP Prediction Process input data is taken from a large number of  specially selected US domestic and international market indicators. TSP Advisor monitors daily TSP share price movements.  When significant TSP fund share prices movements are noted and technically confirmed, current market data is evaluated using technical analysis methods specifically designed and customized for the four variable TSP funds (F, C, S and I Funds).  Process output is generated in the form of an investment signal for each variable TSP Fund.  The TSP Advisor predicts a TSP variable fund  to have a positive short term ROI % when a strong investment signal is generated, but does not predict when weak or mixed investment signals are generated.  Immediately after posting each new predictions in the Latest TSP Predictions table, Table A of the TSPAdvisor.com Subscription page, TSP Advisor prepares and sends subscribers a TSP Advisor Alert Email notifying them of the new opportunities and proposing applicable TSP Fund buy/sell transactions necessary for capturing the new opportunities. Predictions are considered to be valid until specifically changed by a future TSP Advisor Alert Email.

b)  TSP Funding Allocation Strategy:  The TSP Funding Allocation Strategy is defined as follows: 

     1)  When only one variable fund is predicted to have a positive ROI in the near future, 100% of account funds are recommended to be placed in the predicted fund; 

     2) If two or more variable stock funds are predicted to be positive at the same time,  a percentage of your TSP account fund is recommended to be invested in each predicted stock fund.  Percentages are calculated using proprietary moving average formulas.

     3) The Bond Fund is only funded when it is the only variable TSP fund predicted, in which case it is funded 100%.   If the Bond fund is predicted at the same time other TSP stock fund(s) are predicted, the Bond fund prediction is ignored and not funded;.

     4) When neither the Bond or any stock fund is predicted, a high market risk period is indicated and 100% of your TSP account funds is recommended to be placed in the Government Securities (G) Fund to preserve your TSP investment capital during these periods. TSP Advisor provided funding allocation percentages are  posted on the TSP Advisor Secure Subscription page and are contained in each TSP Advisor Alert Email.

c)  Use Of TSP Advisor Funding Allocation Strategy is voluntary. Subscribers may choose to use the TSP Advisor provided Funding Allocation strategy, a multiple of it or they may choose to use their own personal funding strategy  for determining the amount of their TSP account funds to put in each TSP Advisor prediction they select for implementation. 

 

2.     How accurate are the TSP predictions? 

Prediction Accuracy is defined as the percentage of the number of months or quaraters which had correct TSP Fund predictions made in the period divided by the total number of months/quarters in the period.  TSP Advisor predictions were found to be highly accurate during the TSP Advisor "Proof Of Concept" (POC) test.  Using monthly market data taken in an 18 month period beginning 1 May 2001 and ending on 31 October 2002, a total of 18 variable TSP Funds were predicted to have a positive return on investment (ROI) and all 18 predicted funds had a positive ROI value for the following month. This provided a 100% prediction accuracy for the POC test period.  Based on an evaluation of the POC test results, we conclude that our prediction process will provide accurate results for the great majority of  predictions made; however, this doesn't mean an occasional incorrect prediction will not be experienced.  Since we can't completely eliminate investment risk, we expect a few incorrect predictions will be made on rare occasions.  Current and historical  TSP Advisor Prediction Accuracy values are posted on TSPAdvisor.com.  To review TSP Advisor prediction data, hit this link Prediction Data.

 

3.     What Return On Investment (ROI) did TSP Advisor earn, and how does it compare to ROI values achieved by other TSP Fund investment scenarios?

TSP Advisor predictions were initially tested in an 18 month Proof Of Concept (POC) test that began 1 May 2002 and ran through 31 October 2002.  The intent of the test was to prove that full implementation of all TSP Advisor predictions would be profitable.  The test simulated full implementation of all TSP investments made during each month in the test period.  A total of 18 predictions of variable TSP Funds (F, C, S, and I Funds)  were made during the test period, resulting in a TSP Advisor cumulative return on investment (ROI) value of 32.7% being achieved.   

The TSP Advisor (ROI) values achieved during the POC test period were compared to ROI values achieved in the same test period by other typical TSP investment scenarios.   TSP Advisor Investment Portfolio returns was benchmarked against  those achieved by  5 other typical TSP investment scenarios, with each typical scenario consisting of a 100% investment in one TSP fund for each of the 5 TSP funds.  The TSP Advisor Investment Portfolio achieved a cumulative ROI value of 32.7%, which was significantly higher than any of the other TSP fund scenarios, and was more than double the nest highest scenario cumulative ROI value, which was the Bond (F) fund that achieved a cumulative ROI of 14.16% during the same 18month period.  To view the POC test data and more current quarterly ROI data, hit this link TSP Investment Alternativesí ROI Data. 

 

4.     Will Use of TSP Advisor predictions improve my TSP earnings?

Past financial successes don't guarantee future ones; however, TSP Advisor's test results confirm that timely full implementation of TSP Advisor predictions puts the odds in your favor for making more profitable TSP investment decisions, which over time will optimize your long term TSP investment earnings. 

No one can predict exactly how high your ROI value will be if you fully implement all TSP Advisor predictions in a timely manner for a given period of time; however, you can make a pretty good judgment based on a comparison of your personal TSP account calendar year 2003 cumulative ROI value to that earned by the TSP Advisor Investment Portfolio, which was 16.1% for calendar year 2003.  If your personal ROI value was significantly lower than 16.1%, it is highly probable TSP Advisor can help increase your TSP earnings. 

While making higher returns in an up market constitutes a portion of good investment risk management, another important part of good investment risk management is the preservation of  investment capital when the market goes down significantly, as was the case in the POC test period. The POC test period consisted of an 18 month test period which began on 1 may 2001 and ended on 31 October 2002, a time frame that  included several  "dot.com bubble burst" months and  nearly 2 months following  the day our  national 9/11 tragedies occurred.  Both of these events caused market prices to drop significantly for several months.  During this period TSP Advisor achieved a cumulative return on investment of 32.7 %, which was significantly higher than that earned by any other TSP investment scenario in the same period.

 

5. How can I determine if paying the TSPAdvisor.com subscription fee is cost effective?

TSP Advisor has 3 subscription rates, $13 monthly, $35 quarterly and $120 annually. The subscription rate offering the best value is the annual rate of $120 per year, which averages $10 per month.  The best way to evaluate your potential cost effectiveness is to calculate your potential benefit cost ratio (B/C).  Your benefit is the amount of additional profit you would have made if you had fully implemented all TSP Advisor predictions in 2003 and the cost would have been your annual subscription rate of $120.  You calculate your B/C  as follows:

                                  (Bo  * 1.161) - B1

      B/C       =             _____________________     

                                                $120

 Where     B/C = Your Benefit cost ratio

                Bo = Your actual 12/31/2002 TSP Account Balance 

                B1 = Your actual 12/31/2003 TSP account balance

For example, if you had a 12/31/2002 actual TSP account balance of $30,000 and you actually invested 100% of your TSP account funds in the Government Securities (G) Fund, you would have received a 4.11% annual return and your 12/31/2003 actual TSP account balance would have been $31,233.  If you had made your TSP investments by fully implementing all TSP Advisor predictions in 2003, you would have received a 16.1% return and your TSP account balance on 12/31/2003 would have been $34,830.  Your net annual profit gain would be ($34,830-$31,233) or $ 3,597. Your B/C would equal your net annual profit gain ( $3,597) divided by your annual cost ($120) which is approximately equal to 30.  Your B/C ratio of 30 represents a net gain of $30 for every dollar of subscription cost you paid; thus, it is easy to see that subscribing to TSP Advisor can be very cost effective. 

 

6.     How does one get started using TSP Advisor?

You must have Internet access capability and become a subscriber to TSPAdvisor.com before you will be able to implement TSP Advisor investment predictions.  Once these initial actions are completed,  you will be able to evaluate TSP Advisor predictions that are offered for your investment consideration, and select those you desire to implement, after checking with your personal financial advisor. You implement selected predictions by making online (tsp.gov) interfund transfers in your personal TSP account.  Each month, you repeat the same procedure.  For more detailed instructions for how to start using TSPAdvisor.com, hit this link Getting Started Using TSPAdvisor.com.

 

7.     What are the TSPAdvisor.com subscription rates, and how do I subscribe? 

To view the TSPAdvisor.com subscription rates and terms, hit this link Subscription Rates And Terms.  For instructions on how to subscribe to TSPAdvisor.com, hit this link How To Subscribe.